Bitcoin Could Climb Beyond $150,000 by January, DeFi Derivatives Platform Derive Says

By Sebastian Sinclair

The derivatives market is pointing to a small chance for further upward momentum for Bitcoin next month, following the asset’s historic rise above $100,000 last week. 

That’s according to Sean Dawson, head of research at DeFi derivatives protocol Derive.

“We continue to see a 10.5% probability of Ethereum reaching $6,000 and a 6% likelihood for Bitcoin surpassing $150,000 by January 31,” Dawson told Decrypt. 

“Regarding the 25 delta skews, they've remained stable since last week, showing no significant shifts, Dawson added. “It appears the market has consolidated its position over the weekend.”

The 25 delta skew measures the market's bias between calls and puts, and its stability suggests traders' expectations for price direction or risk haven't shifted significantly.

It follows Bitcoin’s run above its $100,000 price tag on Wednesday and the significant volatility that followed 12 hours later, which saw the asset dip to an eight-day low of $92,000.

Bitcoin’s price has since regained ground, remaining flat on the day at $99,260, CoinGecko data shows.

“The weekend usually results in quieter markets and subdued price movements, Dawson explained. 

Pointing to factors including MicroStrategy flows and BlackRock IBIT options having an outsized impact on Bitcoin’s pricing, Dawson said weekend trading “tends to reduce volatility,” giving the market a “chance to stabilize.”

Bitcoin has recaptured the imagination of retail and institutional investors after President-elect Donald Trump clinched a decisive victory in the 2024 elections, held last month.

Trump has promised to implement a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. while protecting the interests of domestic crypto mining firms and those offering industry-related services.

Meanwhile, exchange-traded fund flows for major issuers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, continue to post impressive records, with the former rising to become the world’s fastest fund to reach the $50 billion assets under management.

“With the market in unchartered territory, we are now in a new price discovery zone,” Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote in a note on Wednesday. “We have returned to a binary scenario, where the spot price could either be driven higher, or selling pressure could push it back below $100,000.

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