When Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—the scion of America’s most prominent political dynasty—exalted the virtues of the leading cryptocurrency during a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, attendees cheered.
Members of the campaign for Donald J. Trump, who was also speaking at the conference later that week, likely sweated, however. Kennedy, to some observers, appeared deeply immersed in the space, while Trump’s proclamations were more surface-level—plus the former president had previously criticized Bitcoin before his recent perspective shift.
“There was one candidate who was clearly far more substantive on the issues [of crypto], and it was RFK,” Digital Chamber Chief Policy Officer Cody Carbone told Decrypt.
“RFK Jr. seemed poised to peel off some single-issue crypto voters from Trump,” Carbone added. “He was naming Michael Saylor and Caitlin Long, which is like red meat to these people.”
But now, Republicans have little reason to sweat. Last week, RFK Jr., a third-party candidate who had successfully secured a spot on the ballot in 23 states, announced he was suspending his campaign to endorse Trump.
The lifelong Democrat has also received an invitation to serve on Trump’s transition team, meaning he would be a lodestone for the ex-president’s would-be administration's policies, including those involving crypto, Reuters reported Tuesday.
Kennedy's about-face is a big deal to some crypto holders, who believe it could help Trump—a self-declared crypto-friendly candidate—take back the White House, several crypto industry executives told Decrypt.
According to those experts, the independent candidate's turn toward Trump could inspire undecided single-issue crypto voters to support the Republican nominee at the ballot box. That might give him a slight lead over his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been closing the gap with her rival in the polls in recent weeks.
In an election that could be decided by a razor-thin margin, those extra votes could mean the difference between Americans electing a pro-crypto candidate and one seemingly either neutral or opposed to the industry.
“[RFK Jr.] jumping in on this and backing Trump… is awesome for the Trump campaign, bad news for the Democrats, and great news for crypto,” said Mehow Pospieszalski, CEO of MatterFi, a digital asset wallet solution.
Changing horses
Some crypto voters have supported Kennedy for months due to his more substantive grasp on Bitcoin and broader crypto-related issues than Trump, several crypto industry executives told Decrypt.
But with Kennedy out of the equation and Democrats remaining silent on the crypto question, those votes will likely flow to the former president, they say.
“RFK Jr. would've split the single-issue voters, but as of now, there is only one pro-crypto candidate,” said Burnt Banksy, the pseudonymous CEO of blockchain tech firm Burnt.
Trump has attempted to court crypto voters for months, enshrining pro-crypto talking points such as the importance of self-custody of users’ digital assets and supporting Bitcoin miners’ rights in the Republican Party’s platform in May.
He also vowed to free Silk Road creator Ross Albright earlier this summer, in addition to proposing a “strategic stockpile” of Bitcoin for the U.S. Treasury during the Bitcoin conference in Nashville earlier this year.
By comparison, Democratic nominee Harris’ campaign has stayed silent on the crypto issue. While billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban told Decrypt that her team reached out with “multiple questions” about crypto and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire believes the campaign is showing a “concerted effort” towards understanding the space, industry insiders told Decrypt that her camp has rejected invitations from industry executives to discuss digital assets regulation and policy.
While Democrats in Congress have organized roundtables such as the digital Crypto4Harris event to improve ties between the crypto community and the Democratic Party, digital asset-focused voters are still skeptical of the campaign.
“You have Trump, and then you have… Harris, who hasn't said anything about crypto and is also currently part of an administration that has [waged] an outright war on crypto,” Warren Anderson, co-founder of omni-chain staking protocol Exocore, said Monday.
Helping skeptics embrace Trump?
While Trump has done more to woo crypto voters than his Democratic challenger, he has faced pushback from some crypto diehards. At Bitcoin 2024, for example, a group of pro-crypto advocates protested Trump’s attendance at the event, calling into question the genuineness of his support for digital assets.
But with Kennedy now on Team Trump, some of those anti-Trump holdouts could warm up to the ex-president, crypto industry insiders believe.
“The hope is that Trump, who was already pro-crypto and said he would do some reserve stuff, will do more of it with RFK Jr. in there, especially if [Kennedy] ultimately gets a cabinet position,” MatterFi’s Pospieszalski said.
That could be crucial to Trump’s play for the presidency in a tight presidential race, particularly as Harris gains ground on the ex-president.
An aggregate of 2024 elections surveys from Decision Desk HQ shows Harris is leading Trump in national polls by roughly five percentage points. To boot, Harris leads Trump among independent voters in six out of the seven key swing states, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll.
Meanwhile, a betting pool for the U.S. 2024 presidential election on crypto prediction market Polymarket shows the two presidential hopefuls have roughly equal odds of becoming Commander-in-Chief: Trump is leading with 50% of betting volume, while Harris has received 49%.
“Any advantage one of the campaigns can gain over the other, especially active communities like crypto, may mean the difference between victory and defeat in November,” said Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at digital advocacy firm Think Big.
There is no data on what percentage of the U.S. electorate consists of single-issue crypto voters, so it is unclear how much sway the community will have on November’s election.
However, some crypto industry members say a pro-crypto voting block could feasibly shape the election. Exocore’s Anderson believes single-issue crypto voters have particular power over influencing the outcome of this election compared to other single-issue voter blocs.
And with crypto super PAC Fairshake raising a war chest of nearly $203 million to pour into the election, according to data from campaign finance tracker OpenSecrets, the number of voters with crypto on their minds could grow between now and November 5.
“The crypto industry is incredibly mobile… and there’s a lot of money there,” Anderson said. “In terms of voting as a bloc, they can move much faster than other single-issue voters.”
“People are starting to wake up [to the fact] that the crypto market is serious,” he added.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair and Andrew Hayward