We do the research, you get the alpha!
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban has dismissed the usefulness of the decentralized prediction market Polymarket when it comes to predicting the 2024 U.S. presidential election winner.
“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” he said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box.
Polymarket’s odds give Donald Trump a 64.1% chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, with the Democratic candidate sitting at 36.1% at the time of writing.
Over $2.2 billion has been staked on the Polygon-based platform at the time of writing, with most of the capital flowing in being wagered on Trump. Just over $600 million has been placed on Trump so far, while more than $400 million has been put behind Harris.
Cuban pointed out that Polymarket doesn't allow U.S. citizens to place bets on the election. This follows a 2022 decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which saw the platform hit with a $1.4 million fine.
Despite being critical of Polymarket’s usefulness as a predictor of the 2024 Presidential race, he revealed that he is an indirect investor in the platform through a “crypto fund that I’m in.”
Unlike a traditional online betting platform, like DraftKings, Polymarket users don’t bet against “the house.” Its odds also aren’t decided by a panel of expert oddsmakers.
Instead, odds are determined by users buying and selling shares in a particular outcome, and shares are created when opposing sides agree on odds.
This distinction has led some third-party commentators to argue that Polymarket’s odds can be manipulated by bettors with other motives.
An article in The Wall Street Journal speculated that Trump’s strong odds on the platform “might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.”
The four users, named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, all placed bets on a Trump victory in quick succession.
However, Polymarket has past form when it comes to making calls on recent U.S. political events, having correctly predicted that President Biden would drop out of the 2024 race before November.