Whether it was a long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, as originally feared, or an experimental intermediate-range hypersonic missile, as now believed, Russia’s war with Ukraine took yet another step toward fears of nuclear escalation on Wednesday.
The Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro appeared to be in retaliation for missile attacks on Russia Tuesday after the Biden Administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against targets inside Russia.
The hypersonic missile that was used is apparently the first of a new generation of weaponry being developed by superpowers across the globe.
Adding to the growing concern around Russia’s launch of its "Oreshnik" (the hazel) missile is the fact it carried a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) system that allows it to carry multiple warheads, a payload capacity typically associated with nuclear missiles.
How Hypersonic Missiles Differ from ICBMs
What’s the difference between supersonic missiles and ICBMs? Their flight behavior, experts say.
While both ICBMs and hypersonic missiles achieve speeds in excess of Mach 5, hypersonic missiles are far more evasive and can fly inside the atmosphere, changing course at lower altitudes mid-flight to outmaneuver defenses.
In contrast, ICBMs follow a predictable parabolic trajectory after launch, making them far easier to track.
Russia’s use of a hypersonic missile underscores the broader race to develop hypersonic technology. Currently, the U.S., Russia, China, and North Korea have supposedly developed hypersonic missiles, though Russia appears to be the only country ever to launch one in combat.
On Monday, India became the latest nation to enter the arms race, announcing the successful test of what it claimed was its first hypersonic missile. However, whether the missile could be fitted with an effective payload, among other technical issues, was still an open question.
Though it has yet to deploy a hypersonic weapon, the U.S. is investing heavily in its research. The Pentagon’s 2025 budget includes a request for $6.9 billion for hypersonic weapons, according to an August 2024 report from the Congressional Research Service.
The Politics of Hypersonic Missiles
Russia’s use of a hypersonic missile is less about terror and destruction and more about sending a message to the West, according to former Intelligence Officer Matthew Shoemaker.
“This was more a message to President Biden, the U.K., and France, more so than to the Ukrainians,” Shoemaker told Decrypt. “It's messaging to the West to stay out.”
Shoemaker, who served with the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Navy, suggested that if Russia had wanted to inflict serious damage on Dnipro, it could have used a conventional weapon.
“Putin could have achieved the same result in terms of taking out whatever target he launched against using a conventional weapon,” Shoemaker said. “He would have done it far more cheaply as well.”
Shoemaker also emphasized the timing of these exchanges, particularly given the political landscape in the U.S., suggesting that Biden’s authorization of ATACMS strikes may have been designed to give Ukraine leverage as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office.
“This is all very much political chess and political gamesmanship that both sides are playing,” Shoemaker said. “Apparently, from what I'm seeing, Biden allowed the attack just so that Ukraine could have some semblance of a bargaining chip when President Trump gets into office.”
Shoemaker clarified that while Russia’s missile is hypersonic, conventional Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are also considered hypersonic due to their power and speed—up to 17,600 miles per hour (Mach 25).
“If this were an ICBM type missile, the White House would have had to have been alerted beforehand by the Russians,” he said. “If the White House was not made aware that this was going on, it would have tripped our early warning systems, and it would have made people in the Pentagon go crazy that there was an unsanctioned ICBM launch.”
The alert Shoemaker referenced would be in accordance with standard procedures set in the International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, also known as the Hague Code of Conduct for ICBMs.
Earlier this month, before the U.S. tested a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, notifying the Russian government in advance of the launch.
While the Biden Administration has limited Ukraine's use of ATACMS on Russian targets, Shoemaker observed since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened nuclear war without taking action, relying instead on those threats as a deterrent.
“Putin has been using these nuclear weapons comments for the better part of three years now, and he's not done anything with regard to it,” Shoemaker said. “So this is once again, him trying to send the message that I'm not bluffing, even though he's bluffing.”
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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